Two months ago, the US surprised Iran with missiles and bombs on February 28th, and the fearmongering headlines poured in. The weekend headlines were filled with collapsing stock futures, surging oil, the coming of surging inflation, political upheaval and so on. After the shock wore off, astute investors have checked in with me regularly, asking about what type of investing opportunities have been presenting themselves. Let's explore the common questions and investing themes that many of us think of when a major event like this happens, what our general expectations are with these questions, and what reality looks like two months later.
S&P 500
Probably the most frequent question I have been asked is "Am I losing a lot of money with what is happening with Iran?" Our portfolios are diversified, but the S&P 500 provides a decent overview in the general direction of most people's performance.
S&P 500 February 27th, 2026 (Friday's market close before the war started): 6879
S&P 500 March 2nd, 2026 (Monday after the war started): 6882
S&P 500 April 28th, 2026: 7139
While there was a roughly 8% pullback at the end of March, the S&P 500 has rebounded and has finished clearly in the positive 2 months in. The 8% pullback isn't even deep enough to be considered a normal market correction, defined as a market drop of more than 10% and less than 20%.
Oil
The next most common question had to do with the price of oil. Most people have wondered if the price of oil will stay high with the dual blockades happening in the Strait of Hormuz, while I previously postured in my previous article that oil prices should eventually settle down 2 months later. The previous chart can now be updated.
Conflict Event | Start of War | Peak | 4 Weeks After | 2 Months After |
US/Israel-Iran (2026) | $82.00 | $119.50 (so far) | $106.84 | $111.33 |
Russia-Ukraine (2022) | $97.00 | $127.98 | $115.00 | $105.00 |
Libyan Civil War (2011) | $102.00 | $124.65 | $117.00 | $114.00 |
Iraq War (2003) | $30.00 | $37.87 | $26.00 | $24.00 |
Gulf War (1990) | $21.00 | $46.00 | $35.00 | $32.00 |
Iran-Iraq War (1980) | $34.00 | $43.00 | $37.00 | $38.00 |
While oil prices are slightly down from their peak price, they remain elevated and have not retreated in a material enough manner relative to the start of the war. We continue to feel the pain at the pumps.
What about various investment opportunities in oil, how have those performed on the first possible trading day since the conflict started?
Exxon Mobil stock (XOM): $154.22 on March 2nd, $150.56 on April 28th (-2.4%)
Chevron stock (CVX): $189.60 on March 2nd, $188.36 on April 28th (-0.07%)
State Street Energy ETF (XLE): $57.04 on March 2nd, $57.71 on April 28th (+1.2%)
State Street Oil and Gas ETF (XOP): $159.56 on March 2nd, $171.65 on April 28th (+7.6%)
While oil prices have increased over 35% since the start of the war, the majority of investment opportunities for most investors don't appear to reflect such an increase.
Gold, the Safe Haven Asset?
In my previous article, I mentioned that gold, customarily accepted by many as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, had spiked on March 2nd to $5396/ounce, but about a week later, the price had already retreated to $5205. How is it doing today?
Gold Price on April 28th: $4583/ounce. That is a roughly -15% decline since the start of the war. Is that what people should consider as a safe haven with that type of volatility in a 2 month time frame?
Defense Stocks
There was a section I failed to consider in my previous article but became a frequently asked question: "How is Raytheon / Lockheed / Northrop stock doing?" As we have seen in headlines since the start of the war, the US is running low on weapons stockpiles and will need years and hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild those stockpiles. This should be wonderful news for defense companies and provide a terrific investment opportunity, right? Right...?
Raytheon, maker of Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot defense systems (RTX): $212.16 on March 2nd, $175.68 on April 28th (-17.2%)
Lockheed Martin, maker of F35s, F22s, recently signed a deal to quadruple production of THAAD interceptors (LMT): $676.70 on March 2nd, $512.29 on April 28th (-24.3%)
Northrop Grumman, just 2 weeks ago awarded a new contract to develop missile interceptors (NOC): $768.02 on March 2nd, $577.72 on April 28th (-24.8%)
Palantir, provider of AI and data software crucial for military intelligence (PLTR): $145.17 on March 2nd, $141.18 on April 28th (-2.7%)
So what exactly happened here? Well, they did all jump on that first day the market opened on March 2nd, but until now it's been pretty much all downhill from there. Could it be possible that since all of these companies had incredible 2025 stock performances, that maybe they were simply due for a correction, and that the war potentially became an opportunity for big money players to take their profits and sell to an unsuspecting public that was eager to jump aboard on the war news?
Cause Equals Effect...Maybe
At some point you may have been taught that a certain cause will lead to a certain effect. After reading all the news articles and making your portfolio decisions, when you look closely, did the results sometimes seem backwards? The past two months have been a prime example that markets don't always react to events the way we might expect. Is your portfolio aligned with today's reality, or yesterday's assumptions? If you're not sure, reach out to me and let's have a discussion.