On Saturday, February 28, 2026, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike in Tehran, in a move termed Operation Epic Fury. Being that it was a Saturday, my newsfeed was instantly overwhelmed with multiple articles of a war that could become protracted and messy, and that markets would be bracing for turmoil upon reopening on Monday, March 2nd, 2026. Meanwhile, oil prices were spiking and gold was climbing.
How The Stock Market “Braced for Turmoil” on Monday, March 2nd
First, I want to explore the stock market, and primarily the S&P 500. The weekend of Operation Epic Fury, I happened to receive an email from a prospective client who indicated to me that his balances would “take a beating” on Monday. In my response, I mentioned that he certainly wouldn’t be the only person thinking this way. So let’s take a look at what exactly happened.
The S&P 500 closed on Friday, February 27, 2026 at 6878.88
Operation Epic Fury happened on Saturday, February 28, 2026.
The S&P 500 closed on Monday, March 2, 2026 at 6881.62, for a net result of +0.04%. My newsfeed thereafter was now filled with articles indicating that the markets had demonstrated remarkable resilience.
As of March 10, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 6781.48, down about 1.5% but nowhere near the sensationalized “beating” that the newsfeeds would want us to think.
Gold, the Safe Haven Asset
It seems plausible that we have been conditioned by the media over the years to believe that when uncertainty strikes, there is a panic and a flight to safety, and one of the first assets people think of in terms of safe haven assets is gold, and gold possibly soaring in price.
Spot Gold Price on Friday, February 27, 2026 was roughly $5248.
Spot Gold Price on Monday, March 2, 2026 at one point reached as high as $5396, climbing +2.8%.
Yet within roughly a week, as of March 10, 2026, Spot Gold Price is currently at roughly $5205, giving back all initial gains and already below pre-conflict prices. Gold has yet to return to its recent all-time high price of $5589, set on January 28, 2026, at a time when there were no conflicts happening in the news and no fear mongering or talks of flights to safety. Can gold prices soar from here? Of course it’s possible. But even just exactly one year ago, Spot Gold Price was at $2911. The price of gold has already soared. Now what happens if we get a sudden end to this Iran conflict? Could this be a potential trigger that could even drive the price of gold down?
Oil - Maybe Another Shock and Settle Cycle?
Let’s look at the last six major conflicts that have disrupted oil prices. In most cases, oil prices reach its peak within the first 15 days of the conflict as the initial shock kicks in and fear of supply disruption is highest. But by the two-month mark, prices have typically retreated off those highs as new supply arises, oil reserves are released, or the conflict moves towards “being contained." Prices eventually settle down as the media moves on to other topics in the news.
Conflict Event | Start of War | Peak | 4 Weeks After | 2 Months After |
US/Israel-Iran (2026) | $82.00 | $119.50 (so far) | $112.90 (current) | ??? |
Russia-Ukraine (2022) | $97.00 | $127.98 | $115.00 | $105.00 |
Libyan Civil War (2011) | $102.00 | $124.65 | $117.00 | $114.00 |
Iraq War (2003) | $30.00 | $37.87 | $26.00 | $24.00 |
Gulf War (1990) | $21.00 | $46.00 | $35.00 | $32.00 |
Iran-Iraq War (1980) | $34.00 | $43.00 | $37.00 | $38.00 |
In late September 2011, I was on vacation at Niagara Falls, standing on the bridge overlooking the water. It was a breathtaking view. While standing there, I received a phone call from my assistant, and she told me that I had an important client who wanted to sell some stocks, and I really needed to take his call immediately. I remember him telling me that the Libyan crisis that was dominating the current news cycle was roiling the markets, his accounts had already been down around 4% that week, and he was very concerned that it was only going to get worse. I remember telling him that I understood how he felt, but that this too shall pass, and that in my opinion Libya really wasn’t that big of a player in the overall world economy for us to really have to make major changes to our portfolios. I asked if he would be ok with not making changes yet until I came back the following week, and he agreed to wait. By the time I returned, the stock market had already recovered the drop and everything was essentially back to normal. When he walked into my bank branch and saw me, before I could even say hi, he said “I know, I know, I know” and we both shared a good laugh.
“I-raq, I-ran, I Married”
It’s a line I heard in a popular comedy sitcom from the 90s, Married With Children. They joked about everything, no topic or current events were safe from their satire. Decades of war in the Middle East and the resulting aftermath are absolutely terrible for those with direct impact, and having young kids, I have concerns when I hear about terrorist sleeper cells potentially being activated. Regardless of political views, all of our health and safety is always my primary concern.
As for the newsfeeds and the sensationalism perpetrated by the media about how the markets may be impacted due to this new conflict, I’m not so sure we should give them much more seriousness than if we were watching a sitcom. Can the stock market plunge from here, and oil and gold prices soar from here? Absolutely it’s possible. But at this time, the data wouldn’t seem to point the finger at Operation Epic Fury being the primary cause and effect of that possibility.